A survey of voters undertaken by institutions and calculations by independent psephologists have indicated a surprising unanimity of possible scenarios post May 23 when the results of the Lok Sabha elections are declared — they show that the NDA is likely to have a pared down performance compared to 2014 while the UPA might not move into areas possibly vacated by the BJP-led alliance unless it finds new allies.
A study by the Centre for Socio-Economic and Political Research (CSEPR) in Delhi at the conclusion of Phase VI of polling suggests that the NDA as a pre-poll alliance could muster 231 seats as compared to 174 seats of the UPA, while calculations of the possible poll outcome by a well-known psephologist indicate similar numbers — 234 for the NDA and 169 for the UPA.
Another calculation made by a psephologist appears to anticipate that the tables could be turned on the NDA by the UPA — it suggests that the Congress and its allies could corner 287 seats as against the NDA’s 256. However, this calculation factors in possible post poll tie-ups for both the alliances.
It brackets the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal and the Bahujan Samaj Party-Samajwadi Party Mahagathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh with the Congress. There is no such tie-up now and these parties could add 80 seats to the UPA numbers, according to this calculation.